On a rainy day in Richmond, economist Lynn Reaser delivered a sunny forecast for the nation’s economic recovery, as well as some practical advice for small-business owners.
Reaser, incoming president of the National Association for Business Economics, spoke to more than 50 economists, bankers and other professionals during a meeting of the group’s Richmond chapter Thursday at the Federal Reserve building.
Reaser said more than 80 percent of the group’s economists, including her, say the recession is over and that she expects an average growth in GDP of 3 percent through 2010.
“It won’t be a roaring recovery, but it certainly won’t be anemic,” Reaser said.
One thing she said would be slow to rebound is employment, noting that will be 2012 or later before the country recovers the jobs lost over the last year and a half. But she did say she is seeing signs that job losses are slowing and companies are finding they need more employees.
“Staffing companies all indicate to me that they are getting called up for temporary help,” said Reaser.
But her optimistic projections did come with some caveats, mainly pending federal legislation on health care, taxes and the environment.
“The worst thing in an economy like this is uncertainty, and that’s what is hanging over these companies,” Reaser said, adding that small business are stuck in a holding pattern while they wait to see what the outcomes of these major issues will be.
Reaser recommended that small-business owners work out three or more strategic plans for various levels of recovery, including another downturn.
“Prepare for recovery, but don’t assume its around the corner,” she said. “Keep your cost control and emphasis on productivity, but make sure you have the inventory and capital spending to enjoy the recovery and its benefits when it comes over the next 18 months.”
